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Lowcountry Weather

A forecast for “the Lowcountry” covers a hundred miles of coast, and it is routinely wrong at one end of it. Here is the whole corridor at once, and what it means for the afternoon.

Charleston

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Reading the sky…

  • feels like
  • wind
  • today

The map

radar, wind, swell and heat · live

Where the rain is, this minuteOpen the full map

The corridor, right now

six towns · drawn to the distance between them

Reading six towns…

  • 0
  •  
  •  
  • 50
  •  
  •  
  • 100%

Chance of rain in the next three hours

  1. Savannah
  2. Bluffton
  3. Hilton Head
  4. Beaufort
  5. Charleston
  6. Mount Pleasant

The afternoon

today, against ten years of measured normals

Summer weather here has a shape, and it is not the one a percentage describes. Warm air comes off the land, cool air comes off the water, and where the two meet inland in the early afternoon the sea breeze builds a line of storms that walks back toward the coast. It arrives loud, it rains hard, and then it is gone — 77% of summer rain spells measured here are over inside two hours, and the light afterwards is the best light of the day.

Which is why a 60% chance of rain is not a reason to cancel a beach morning. The question worth asking is not whether it will rain today but when, and the answer in June, July and August is almost always the same: later than you think, and for less time than you fear.

Reading today…

  • 53%of summer days see rain between one and seven
  • 33%see any before noon
  • 77%of rain spells are over inside two hours
  • 35%of summer days stay dry from start to finish

Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis archive, 2015-2024, at 32.7765,-79.9311 · 920 summer days

Sun, sea and tide

Charleston coast · today
  • Sunrise
  • Sunset
  • Golden hour
  • UV peak
  • Water
  • Surf offshore
  • Next tide

The water spends all spring catching up

twelve months · one Fahrenheit scale

The ocean is slow to change its mind. All spring it runs about 5° behind the air, which is why the first properly warm day here arrives weeks before the first properly warm swim. By late summer it has closed to 1° — and then it holds on: 81° in September and 73° in October, long after the beach has emptied. The swimming season on this coast ends later than it looks like it should.

Average daily highSea surface, offshore
60708090JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMar: the water is 5° behindAug: 1°Air 62°Water 58°

Open-Meteo marine archive, 2020-2024, at 32.65,-79.85 · Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis archive, 2015-2024, at 32.7765,-79.9311

The pier at Folly Beach at dusk under a clearing sky
Folly Beach pier · Zech Browning

The season on the calendar

202 systems since 1851

Hurricane season runs from the first of June to the end of November, and for most of it nothing happens. Of the 202 tropical systems that have passed within 100 nautical miles of this coast since 1851 — every one of them, from a depression upward, not only the hurricanes — more than half arrived in the eight weeks between mid-August and mid-October. 54 of the 175 years on record saw nothing at all.

Which makes this a planning fact rather than a warning. June is a quiet month here. So is November. And the light in October, once the season has turned, is the best of the year.

Peak: early Sepmid-Aug to mid-Oct: 53% of everything

NOAA HURDAT2 (1851-2025), tracks within 100 nautical miles of 32.45,-80.05

Questions this coast actually raises

gnats, king tides and the dew point
Why does it rain every afternoon in July?

Because the coast makes its own weather. The land heats faster than the water, the air over it rises, and cooler air off the ocean slides in underneath to replace it. That boundary — the sea breeze front — moves inland through the morning, and where it collides with the breeze coming the other way off the rivers it stacks up enough lift to build thunderstorms. They usually go up twenty or thirty miles inland in the early afternoon and drift back toward the coast, which is why the storm you can see from the beach at three often never reaches it.

When are the gnats?

No-see-ums are a dawn-and-dusk creature and a still-air creature, and they run in two seasons: roughly April into early June, then again from September into October. The wind is the whole story — above about seven miles an hour they cannot fly, so an exposed beach at four in the afternoon is fine and a marsh boardwalk at seven in the evening is not. They are worst on a warm, windless evening after rain.

What is a king tide, and why is the street flooded on a clear day?

A few times a year the sun and moon line up with the moon at its closest, and the tidal range runs a foot or two above normal. On this coast that is enough to push seawater up through the storm drains, so downtown Charleston can flood on a cloudless afternoon with no rain anywhere. It is a spectacle rather than an emergency — it peaks with the tide and drains with it — but it will find the floor of a car parked in the wrong block, so watch where the locals are not parking.

Is the water warm enough to swim?

From about the middle of May to the middle of November, yes, and the back half of that is the better half. The sea runs weeks behind the air, so October water is warmer than May water even though October days are cooler. High summer is bath-warm — mid-eighties — which is lovely and is also why the afternoon storms have so much to work with.

Why does 95° here feel worse than 100° somewhere else?

Dew point. The air here carries a great deal of water in July and August, which stops sweat evaporating, which is the only cooling mechanism a body has. A dry ninety-five is a hot day; a ninety-five with a seventy-eight dew point is the one that ends beach trips. The number to watch on a forecast is not the temperature but the humidity next to it, and the fix is the same either way: be on the water, or be under an oak, between noon and four.

Where do I look when there is actually lightning?

At the top of this page — the ribbon above the menu turns on by itself when thunder is being reported anywhere between Savannah and Mount Pleasant, and it names the town. It reads hourly observations from the airports rather than a forecast, so it is reporting a storm somebody has seen rather than one a model expects. A storm on this coast is usually something to watch from a porch; the ribbon exists to tell you where to point the porch.